MUNICH • 11 OCTOBER 2026

Road to 3:20

Planned sessions, completed work, and what it means for race day.

Intervals.icu sync Loading…

NOW & NEXT

Today’s training decision

Loading
Today

Loading today’s plan…

—

Recommendation —

—

Adjustment: —

Current limiter

—

—

The lowest readiness component is guidance, not an alarm.
Next checkpoint

—

—

Success looks like

—

Fallback: —

Week shape —

GOAL READINESS

Loading

— / 100
Readiness trend —
—

SELECTED WEEK

—planned km
—completed km
—completion

—

Running time by HR zone —
—
Key sessions in this week

CURRENT TRAINING STATE

Loading

—
Long-term fitness—
Short-term fatigue—
Weekly fitness change—

CURRENT RACE POTENTIAL

Fresh-day performance prediction

Flat course, normal weather and a proper taper—not a promise or today’s fatigued result.

—
Marathon—
—
—
Show secondary race predictions Half marathon · 10K · 5K
Half marathon—
—
—
10K—
—
—
5K—
—
—

Loading model evidence…

RUNNING HEART-RATE ZONES

Your working intensity map

— maximum HR

VOLUME TRAJECTORY

Planned versus completed

Core plan 100K stretch Actual

DAILY SCHEDULE

Week

Daily fuel guide ≈ normal activity plus planned or completed training · based on 68.5 kg.

WORKOUT ASSESSMENTS

Latest completed work

BEFORE THE BLOCK

Starting position

HOW THE GAUGE WORKS

Direction, not destiny

The score is not a probability of running 3:20. It combines plan adherence, quality-session execution, volume progression, marathon-specific readiness, and fitness/recovery. The automated assessment updates the components from Intervals.icu evidence.

A strong score can still be overridden by injury, illness, extreme weather, or a failed dress rehearsal.

HOW THE PREDICTION WORKS

Two models, one cautious estimate

The 5K, 10K and half-marathon estimates come from a robust, recency-weighted speed–duration curve fitted to your strongest recent evidence. Your own fatigue exponent is estimated from the data rather than fixed to a generic lookup table.

The marathon estimate blends that speed potential with an independent eight-week model based on actual running volume and mean training pace. This prevents a fast interval session from pretending that marathon durability already exists.

Races and time trials carry the most weight. Structured intervals are recovery-discounted and lower-confidence. Heat-affected or clearly non-maximal efforts are down-weighted, and every daily refresh preserves the historical prediction trend.